Agency, Security & Policy:
The Application of Multi-Agent Simulations to National Security Issues
The Department of Defense is faced by a number of strategic,
operational and tactical challenges that would benefit from novel insights
and technical innovation. A number of these challenges are characterized
by the existence of multiple agents, extensive structural hierarchy, and
systemic outcomes that extend across time. The ability to model these phenomenon,
or human complex systems, allows for a more critical assessment of the nature
of these systems, and the implications of prescribed actions aimed at mitigating
or accentuating the outcomes associated with these systems.
One type of technical innovation that is being actively
developed and used for these problems is that of multi-agent simulation.
The ability to consider the actions and interactions of heterogeneous actors
and organizations, as well as compare theoretical assumptions, provides an
effective means to explore a number of the issues facing national security
organizations. Counter balancing the potential of this modeling approach
are limitations associated with appropriate referent representation and model
use. This paper contrasts the potentials and limitations of multi-agent
simulations, as well as a scheme for considering the appropriate development
of innovative technologies in this area. The author will consider in
detail issues of ontology and epistemology as they relate to national security
issues. Specific examples from the national security realm include the performance
of highly-networked organizations or systems, leadership behavior under varying
regime structures, novel hypothesis generation in support of intelligence
analysis, and operational planning.
Desmond Saunders-Newton
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency ® Information Awareness Office
www.darpa.mil/iao or www.saunders-newton.com
dez@saunders-newton.com