The Agent Based Simulation of the Evolution of Archaic States

    In this paper we investigate the role that warfare played in the formation of the network of alliances between sites that are associated with the formation of the state in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico. A model of state formation proposed by Marcus and Flannery (1996) is used as the basis for an agent-based simulation model. Agents reside in sites and their actions are constrained by knowledge extracted from the Oaxaca Surface Archaeological Survey (Kowalewski 1989). The simulation is run with two different sets of constraint rules for the agents. The first set is based upon the raw data collected in the surface survey. This represents a total of 79 sites and constitutes a minimal level of warfare (raiding) in the Valley. The other site represents the generalization of these constraints to sites with similar social and environmental characteristics. This set corresponds to 987 sites and represents a much more active role for warfare in the Valley. The rules were produced by a data mining technique, Decision Trees, guided by Genetic Algorithms. Simulations were run using the two different rule sets and compared with each other and the archaeological data for the Valley. The results strongly suggest that warfare was a necessary process in the aggregations of resources needed to support the emergence of the state in the Valley.


Dr. Robert G. Reynolds
Wayne State Univeristy
Department of Computer Science
and
University of Michigan
Museums of Anthropology
robertgreynolds@comcast.net

S. Kim
Wayne State University
Department of Computer Science