CARNEIRO, Robert L. (American Museum of Natural History)
THE POLITICAL UNIFICATION OF THE WORLD: WHETHER, WHEN, AND HOW, SOME SPECULATIONS

The rulers of the early empires sometimes dreamed of conquering the whole world, but realistic envisioning of a single world state is probably not more than two centuries old. It was foreseen--or at least hoped for--by Alfred Tennyson in his poem "Locksley Hall." Since then, a number of writers have discussed the possibility, and their speculations will be quoted. I myself became interested in the problem some years ago and extrapolated an existing trend in order to project when, roughly, this unification might occur. The extrapolation was based on the fact that during the last 3,000 years or so the number of autonomous political units in the world has been pretty steadily decreasing. Naroll and Marano, using a different basis, have also suggested dates by which this unification might occur. I will discuss the arguments for the coming of a world state, the factors that seem to foster it, as well as those that impede it. One major question is: If it comes, will it come through warfare, as have virtually all previous enlargements of states, or is it possible that it could happen by peaceful means?