EMBER, Melvin (HRAF) and PEREGRINE, Peter N. (Lawrence)
AUGURY THROUGH ARCHAEOLOGY: PREDICTING CULTURAL COMPLEXITY

This paper uses data coded by the author for all 290 cases in the Outline of Archaeological Traditions, a sampling universe developed by the Human Relations Area Files for comparative archaeological research, to predict future values on the ten variables that comprise the Murdock and Provost Cultural Complexity Scale. The author has elsewhere demonstrated that linear temporal trends are evident for many of these variables, and this paper uses simple regression as a means to predict future values of these variables. The simple conclusion is that cultural complexity has been increasing over time, and will likely continue to increase.